What does the exit of Sheikh Hasina mean for India? Six preliminary insights from Bangladesh's crisis

New Delhi considers Sheikh Hasina as a good friend. However, the city would be worried about the resurgence of Islamist radicalism in its eastern neighborhood. The conflict in Myanmar is a major issue for Northeast India. The border with Pakistan is hot once more. The standoff in the Laos area with China is still ongoing.

The Bangladesh Army will construct an interim administration. With the assistance of political parties, they will do this in place of outgoing Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina.

As demonstrators emerged in Dhaka’s streets, disobeying curfew restrictions, Hasina left her home and fled the nation for an unidentified location in India.

General Waker-uz-Zaman, the head of the Bangladesh Army, made a televised statement. He announced that the Bangladesh Army would form an interim government with the help of political parties.

People gathered in the streets for hours, brandishing sticks. Later, demonstrators were seen entering the prime minister’s official Dhaka mansion.

The scenes resembled those from Sri Lanka in 2022 and Afghanistan in 2021 when the leaders had also fled for safer places. Bangladesh’s situation and goals may be different from those of the two nations. However, there will be a feeling of familiarity despite these differences.

What does this signify for the world, and Bangladesh then?

These are just some early conclusions; the situation is quite dynamic.

First, the state of affairs in Bangladesh:

The job quota system has been a topic of nationwide protests for the past month. This is the largest wave of protests since Sheikh Hasina was re-elected to office for the fourth time since 2008.

Although he had guided the nation through economic expansion, he took harsh measures against the media. He had also taken harsh measures against civil society and the opposition.

The young people coming out on the streets was the final straw that made her unpopular. Bangladesh’s economy, which is still recovering from the COVID-19 epidemic, may face difficulties. The country is expected to become a developing economy in the next years. However, its progress could be affected by her departure.

Second, how will her( Sheikh Hasina) departure affect India?

India has lost a reliable regional partner with her departure after a 17-year term. India has been friendly with Sheikh Hasina, and New Delhi has collaborated closely with her to combat terrorist organizations that are based in Bangladesh.

The two nations grew closer as a result of the collaboration, and New Delhi supported Dhaka on several projects.

Third, Sheikh Hasina has had natural support from New Delhi.

Despite her overtly anti-democratic actions, New Delhi has provided her with tacit backing by exercising caution in its remarks and maintaining that the recent unrest in Bangladesh was a local issue.

The West has been criticizing Hasina’s repression of the opposition. They have been demanding an end to her autocratic ways. They have also been criticizing her treatment of the media and civil society. The West and India have taken issue with India’s support for her in the face of claims of election tampering.

Consequently, fourthly, New Delhi will now have to try to distance itself from her(Sheikh Hasina) unpopularity.

If she does land in India, New Delhi will have to take steps to ensure her safety and deal with inquiries about providing sanctuary to an unpopular leader from the new Dhaka regime.

There’s also a genuine chance of backlash from the Bangladeshi populace, who saw India as supporting Hasina and the West as siding with them during the Awami League’s tenure.

FIFTH, the question of who will control Dhaka going forward will worry New Delhi.

It will be important to see how they treat India. India has had a bad experience in the past with opposition parties led by the Army or BNP-Jamaat ruling the nation; during that time, terror groups hostile to India were active over the border in Bangladesh.

Given the likelihood of a recurrence of this situation and the ongoing standoff between the Indian Army and the PLA in eastern Ladakh, as well as the heat at the LoC and Pakistani border, New Delhi cannot afford to leave another front open. In addition to being the source of turmoil and violence in Northeast India, the Myanmar border is also incredibly unstable.

Sixth, the Army Chief will play a critical role.

According to the Bangladeshi daily Prothom Alo, General Waker convened a meeting at the military headquarters before giving his speech to the country. Two prominent figures from the main opposition Jatiya Party were invited to this meeting.

General Hussain Mohammed Ershad, a retired chief of staff of the Bangladesh Army, founded the Jatiya Party in 1986. In his capacity as Army leader, Gen. Ershad overthrew the government in a coup in 1982 and maintained martial control until December 1983.