December 14, 2024
Israel and Hezbollah

This photo taken from a position in northern Israel shows a Hezbollah UAV intercepted by the Israeli Air Force over north Israel on Aug. 25, 2024.

After months of attacks and counterattacks, concerns of an all-out war between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon have grown. On Sunday, they began their worst exchange of fire.

Both sides claimed they had only targeted military targets, and by mid-morning, it seemed the gunfight had ceased. The Israeli strikes in Lebanon did not result in any injuries to Israelis, but they did kill three militants. However, things continued to be tight.

Here’s an overview of the current situation:

What transpired on Sunday morning?

Israel and Hezbollah
On Sunday, August 25, 2024, Israeli Apache helicopters are seen flying towards northern Israel.

Israel claimed that a planned Hezbollah onslaught required action. Some jets conducted airstrikes across southern Lebanon in response. Their targets were thousands of missile launchers. In response, Hezbollah claimed to have fired hundreds of missiles toward northern Israeli military installations. They also claimed to have fired missiles at missile defense sites and the Israeli-annexed Golan Heights.

Following the targeted death of Fouad Shukur in Beirut last month, Hezbollah described the Israeli airstrike as a first retaliation. Hezbollah described the Israeli airstrike that killed Fouad Shukur in Beirut last month as a first retaliation. It completed the military operations for the day. In the future, it could launch attacks against Israel. Without providing any supporting data, it refuted Israel’s assertion that it stopped the strike.

In the strikes on Lebanon: Security forces killed two Hezbollah militants and one militant from an allied group. Two individuals sustained injuries.

Israeli military spokeswoman Lt Col. Nadav Shoshani stated that preliminary analysis revealed “very little damage” in Israel.

What are the chances of Israel and Hezbollah going to war?

With the heavy weaponry used in Sunday’s gunfight, both sides may be able to declare a type of triumph. Despite the lack of civilian casualties, retreat may be an option for both sides. The gunfight did not spark a long-feared war, thankfully. Tensions are still high, though.

Shortly after the conflict in Gaza began on October 7, Hamas unexpectedly attacked Israel. As a result, Hezbollah started launching rockets and drones against Israel. Iran supports both Hamas and Hezbollah as allies. The almost regular clashes have intensified in recent months as Israel has retaliated with airstrikes.

Since October 8, Israel has carried out over 500 attacks in Lebanon. During these attacks, Hezbollah and other armed groups killed over 500 fighters. Additionally, they killed over 100 civilians and noncombatants. Twenty-three troops and twenty-six civilians have died in strikes from Lebanon in northern Israel. Both sides of the volatile border have seen tens of thousands of people forced to flee.

To enable its nationals to return home, Israel has pledged to calm the border. It states that force may be required. However, the preference is to settle the dispute amicably through US and foreign mediators. Although the party is ready for a bigger conflict, Hezbollah officials have stated that they do not desire one.

How would Israel and Hezbollah fight each other in a war?

Israel and Hezbollah
On May 25, 2024, after continuing cross-border fighting between Israeli troops and Hezbollah fighters, smoke rose from the scene of an Israeli bombing on the Lebanese village of Jebbain.

A month-long conflict between Israel and Hezbollah in 2006 resulted in the destruction of most of southern Lebanon and Beirut as well as the forced eviction of hundreds of thousands of people from both sides’ homes.

A month-long conflict took place between Israel and Hezbollah in 2006, destroying most of southern Lebanon and Beirut. The war also caused the forced eviction of hundreds of thousands of people from their homes in both Israel and Lebanon.

Everyone anticipates a far harsher war in the future.

With an estimated 150,000 rockets, Hezbollah can reach any region of Israel. It has also been experimenting with precision-guided missiles and has built an ever-more-advanced fleet of drones. A full-scale conflict may drive out hundreds of thousands of Israelis, bring Israel’s economy to a standstill, and require the army—which is currently fighting in Gaza—to battle on two fronts.

Any serious strike by Hezbollah, which would probably destroy Lebanon’s civilian infrastructure and economy—which has been in crisis for years—would undoubtedly face a crushing response from Israel. The southern suburbs of Beirut and the towns and villages in southern Lebanon, which are home to Hezbollah’s principal bases, will probably be destroyed.
It might take years for Israel to launch a ground attack to destroy Hezbollah. Compared to Hamas in Gaza, which is still fighting after ten months of severe Israeli airstrikes and ground operations, the militant group is significantly more sophisticated and well-armed.

Would the United States, Iran, and other countries join a war?

Israel and Hezbollah going to war might turn into a regional crisis.

Iran supports Hamas, Hezbollah, and other extremist organizations in Yemen, Syria, and Iraq. Ismail Haniyeh, the head of Hamas, was killed in an explosion in the country’s capital last month, which was largely attributed to Israel. Iran has promised to launch its retaliatory assault in response. Israel has not acknowledged involvement.

Since the beginning of the conflict in Gaza, groups backed by Iran have frequently attacked targets in Israel, the United States, and other countries. These groups may further up their attacks to relieve pressure on Hezbollah.

To attempt and thwart any retaliation strike by Iran or Hezbollah, the United States, on the other hand, has sent a large variety of military assets to the Middle East and pledged unwavering support for Israel in recent weeks. Not too long ago, the USS Abraham Lincoln joined another aircraft carrier strike group in the area.

In April, Iran launched hundreds of missiles and drones into Israel, which a U.S.-led coalition assisted in downing in retaliation for what seemed to be an Israeli strike in Syria that claimed the lives of two Iranian generals. Tensions gradually decreased as both parties minimized an alleged Israeli counterattack on Iran.

How does this affect efforts to maintain the cease-fire in Gaza?

For months now, the US, Egypt, and Qatar have been attempting to mediate a deal for a cease-fire in Gaza and the release of several hostages that Hamas is holding. Diplomats see this kind of agreement as their best chance to reduce tensions in the region, which is why those efforts have become more urgent in recent weeks.

According to Hezbollah, if there is a cease-fire in Gaza, it will stop its border attacks. Hezbollah and Iran have promised to retaliate against the killings of Shukur and Haniyeh; it is unknown if they would carry out or reduce such threats, but neither group wants to be associated with undermining any potential cease-fire agreement.

Even with the intensified diplomacy, there are still significant differences. For example, Egypt and Hamas have rejected Israel’s proposal for a permanent deployment along two vital Gazan passageways. On Sunday, high-level negotiations will take place in Egypt.

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