Nine astonishing facts about Indians in the United States
Donald Trump has made it a priority to deport undocumented foreign people in large numbers. According to reports, the United States has identified over 18,000 illegal Indians who it suspects entered the country unlawfully.
Last week, Narendra Modi declared that India will eliminate the “human trafficking ecosystem” and repatriate its citizens who had entered the US illegally.
He claimed that the people he saw on his trip to Washington were from ordinary families. He said that big dreams and promises lured them.
A recent study by Johns Hopkins University’s Abby Budiman and Devesh Kapur provides insight into undocumented Indians. The study examines the numbers, demographics, entry points, locations, and patterns of undocumented Indians throughout time.
Here, we show some of the more notable results.
How many illegal Indians are living in the United States unlawfully?
Unauthorized immigrants comprise 22% of foreign-born people and 3% of the US population.
However, authorities highly dispute estimates of the number of undocumented Indians among them because they use different methods of calculation.
They are the third-largest group after Mexico and El Salvador, with an estimated 700,000 persons as of 2022. This is according to the Pew Research Centre and Centre for Migration Studies of New York (CMS).
In comparison, the Migration Policy Institute (MPI) ranks India seventh among countries of origin with a figure of 375,000.
Another view is provided by the Department of Homeland Security’s (DHS) official data.The data shows that the authorities did not authorize 220,000 Indians in 2022.
The wide range of estimates underscores the ambiguity surrounding the actual number of undocumented Indians, the survey found.
However, numbers are now lower than they were before.
Indians make up a very small percentage of all illegal undocumented immigrants in the United States.
The analysis suggests that over one in four Indian immigrants in the US lack documentation. This is based on Pew and CMS figures. Migratory trends make this improbable. (The number of Indian immigrants in the US has increased from 600,000 in 1990 to 3.2 million in 2022. They are now one of the fastest-growing populations.)
In 2022, the DHS projected that the number of undocumented Indians in the United States had decreased. It reduced from 560,000 to 220,000, a 60% decrease from its peak in 2016.
How did the undocumented Indian population fall so precipitously between 2016 and 2022? Mr. Kapur believes the statistics do not answer the question. He suggests that some people may have received legal status while others were forced to return, likely due to the challenges COVID-19 posed.
This projection does not account for the 2023 spike in Indians reaching US borders. The real figure may be greater.
According to the analysis, there was no discernible rise in the total number of undocumented Indians from the US financial year (FY) 2020 to 2022, despite an increase in border contacts.
US officials halt non-citizens while they try to enter the country from Mexico or Canada. Authorities refer to this as an encounter.
Since 2016, the percentage of Indians who overstay their visas has stayed constant at 1.5%.
From 2,600 in 2017 to 1,600 in 2024, the number of Indians receiving Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) has similarly decreased. The DACA program protects migrants who enter the US as minors.
To sum up: the undocumented Indian population grew both in numbers and as a share of all unauthorised migrants. It rose from 0.8% in 1990 to 3.9% in 2015 before dropping to 2% in 2022.
A surge – and shifting migration routes
The US has two main land borders.
The southern border along the states of Arizona, California, New Mexico, and Texas bordering Mexico sees the most migrant crossings. Then there’s the US-Canada border spanning 11 states.
Before 2010, encounters involving Indians at the two borders were minimal, never exceeding 1,000.
Since 2010, nearly all encounters involving Indians occurred along the US-Mexico southern border.
Indian encounters on the northern border surged in FY 2024. They became the most frequent type of crossing, up from just a small number of 4% in the previous year to 36% in FY 2024.
The number of Indian national encounters on the northern border increased from 4% to 36% of all Indian crossings in FY 2024.
India can now enter Canada more easily. This is because visa processing times are shorter than in the US.
The number of attempted border crossings increased starting in 2021. The number of encounters at the Mexico border peaked in 2023.
This isn’t unique to Indians. It is part of a greater wave of migrants attempting to enter the United States following Biden’s election. Mr. Kapur informed me, “It seems like there has been a surge in migration, and it includes Indians.”
Where do the undocumented illegal Indians reside in the United States?
According to the survey, the states with the biggest concentrations of undocumented Indian immigrants are California (112,000), Texas (61,000), New Jersey (55,000), New York (43,000), and Illinois (31,000).
A sizeable portion of the entire undocumented population in Ohio (16%), Michigan (14%), New Jersey (12%), and Pennsylvania (11%), are Indians.
Tennessee, Indiana, Georgia, Wisconsin, and California are among the states where over 20% of Indian immigrants are undocumented.
We expect this because it is easier to blend in and find work in an ethnic business. Mr. Kapur informed me that this is because it is easier to blend in and find work in an ethnic business.
Who are the asylum-seeking illegal Indians in the United States?
The US immigration system permits credible “fear screenings” for those arrested at the border who fear persecution in their home countries. Those who pass can apply for asylum in court, which increases border apprehensions and the number of asylum petitions.
Administrative data lacks information on the precise demographics of Indian asylum applicants. Court records on spoken languages provide some insights into this information.
Since 2001, Punjabi-speaking individuals have dominated Indian asylum petitions. Indian refugee seekers spoke Gujarati (7%), Hindi (14%), and English 8% after Punjabi.
They filed 66% of asylum claims from FY 2001–2022. They cited Punjab and the nearby state of Haryana as major suppliers of migrants.
Additionally, Punjabi speakers received the largest percentage of refuge among Indians (63%), followed by Hindi speakers (58%). However, only 25% of Gujarati speakers’ cases were accepted.
Why asylum claims are increasing: “Gaming the system”
According to US data gathered by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), the number of Indian asylum requests in the US has increased dramatically.
Between 2021 and 2023, the number of requests increased from over 5,000 to over 51,000, a tenfold increase in just two years.
Indians are among the greatest categories of people seeking asylum in the US, but comparable trends are also observed in Canada, the UK, and Australia, where the surge is most pronounced, according to the study.
Mr. Kapur believes that this is “largely a way to game the asylum system rather than an objective fear of persecution, as processing takes years”.
Since so many Punjabi speakers are applying for asylum, it’s unclear what has changed in the northern Indian state, which was ruled by the Congress party from 2017 to 22 and then the Aam Aadmi Party from 2022 to the present, to cause this increase.
Asylum applications are expected to sharply decline under Trump’s second term.
In his first week, a popular app for migrants was shut down and taken down from app stores, which resulted in the cancellation of about 300,000 appointments that were still waiting, including asylum cases that were already underway.
What can we learn about India from refugee seekers?
According to US data, the majority of Indian asylum seekers are Gujarati and Punjabi. These individuals come from affluent states in India and can afford the high relocation costs.
The survey found that Indian Muslims, members of marginalized communities, and residents of conflict areas rarely apply for refuge. These groups include those in Kashmir and areas affected by Maoist violence.
The majority of Indian asylum applicants are not from the poorest or most conflict-affected areas of the country. They are, instead, economic migrants.
According to the study, only individuals with assets to sell or promise can afford the difficult route to the US, whether via Latin America or as “fake” students in Canada. The cost is 30–100 times that of India’s per capita GDP.
Punjab and Gujarat, states with a majority of undocumented Indians originating, are among the wealthiest in India. Their land values greatly outweigh agricultural profits.
According to the survey, “Even illegality takes a lot of money to pursue,”
Why are Indians migrating illegally?
The authors argue that there is no causal relationship between India’s democratic backsliding and an increase in refugee petitions. They observe that a connection may appear, but they do not prove it.
Emigration from Punjab and Gujarat has a long history. People have moved to various countries, not just to the US but also to the UK, Canada, and Australia.
The report states that India is expected to receive $120 billion in 2023 in remittances. This influx of money is fueling hopes for a better life, driven by the desire to emulate the success of those living abroad.
In India, a thriving agent and broker industry has benefited from this need.
The Indian government has looked the other way. The report claims this is likely because the issue of illegal migration is more burdensome for receiving countries than sending countries.
What is the number of Indians deported?
Approximately 16,000 Indians were deported between 2009 and 2024, the country’s Ministry of External Affairs reports.
Obama oversaw an average of 750 deportations annually, Trump’s first term saw 1,550, and Biden’s was 900.
The removal of Indian migrants increased between FY 2023 and 2024, but it peaked in 2020 with around 2,300 deportations.
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