Can Harris win the US presidential election in the wake of Joe Biden’s withdrawal?

Harris will most likely now run as the Democratic nominee against former Republican president Donald Trump in November in the US presidential election, though this is not a given.

The US presidential election is held on November 5th in the US. On Sunday US time, US President Joe Biden withdrew from the US presidential contest and endorsed his vice president, Kamala Harris.

Harris will now probably challenge the former Republican president Donald Trump in November as the Democratic nominee. This is not presumable. More than 95% of the delegates to the Democratic convention were won by Biden. August 19–22, during the early-year Democratic presidential primary, is when the convention is slated to take place. These delegates will almost certainly vote for Harris because Biden endorsed her.

There has been pressure on Biden to step down ever since the widely-regarded disastrous June 27 debate with Trump. Before Biden’s departure on Sunday, an Ipsos survey for US ABC News revealed that Democratic voters supported Biden’s withdrawal by a margin of 60 to 39.

Since the generally regarded terrible June 27 debate with Trump, Biden has been under calls to resign. An Ipsos study conducted for US ABC News before Biden’s leaving on Sunday showed that Democratic voters were 60 to 39 in favor of his resignation.

Is Harris going to prevail in the US presidential election?

Though it is not guaranteed, Harris will now most likely challenge former Republican president Donald Trump in November as the Democratic nominee.

The difference between Trump and Biden in the FiveThirtyEight aggregate of national surveys increased from 1.9 points on July 13 to 3.2 points. Since the aggregate started in March, this was the largest margin. This came after the Republican convention held from July 15–18 after the July 13 assassination attempt on Trump. Biden took home 40.2% of the vote, Trump 43.5%, and Kennedy Jr. 8.7%.

It is well known that the election of a president is not decided by the national popular vote. The population of each state determines how many electoral votes it receives. All of the EVs in that state are taken by the winner. It takes 270 EVs to win. The EV system likely favors Trump, which is why Biden’s deficit was more than it was in the national surveys.

President Biden will remain in office until the end of his term in January 2025. In the aggregate, 38.5% of voters support him, while 56.2% oppose him, giving him a net approval rating of -17.7. His net approval rating is lower than that of past presidents at this point in their tenure, except Jimmy Carter and George W. Bush Sr.

With a total of 53.7% negative votes and 41.7% positive votes, Trump’s net favorability is -12.0 on FiveThirtyEight. His ratings haven’t changed much since April. Unfortunately, Harris has no ratings for favorability on FiveThirtyEight.

Harris vs Trump in the US presidential election?

It is too early to evaluate the Harris vs. Trump surveys. Because Biden is a more well-known figure than Harris—Harris has never run for president—his percentages are usually higher. In a recent countrywide YouGov survey done for CBS News, Trump beat Biden by five points and Harris by three points.

There should be two advantages for Harris. One is that improving economic indicators show a fall in inflation and a rise in real earnings. The other is that Biden will have been close to 82 years old by the time of the US presidential election, while Harris will just be 60. Trump is 78 years old, therefore the age difference that supported Biden will now work in Harris’ favor.

Still, nominating a candidate who has not yet encountered a primary challenger carries a very high risk. In December 2019, Harris declared her resignation from the 2020 US presidential race, one month before the primaries.

However, voters are wary of Biden’s advanced age, and the Democrats would be better served by selecting a different candidate given that he is already lagging behind Trump in the polls. Malcolm Turnbull defeated Tony Abbott in the 2016 federal election, and Scott Morrison defeated Turnbull in the 2019 election. Australian parties have previously had success changing prime ministers.

Despite Biden’s recent losing streak, US Senate polls in presidential swing states including Pennsylvania, Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Arizona show that the Democratic candidates are outperforming Biden and winning. Thus, Democrats may be only against Biden.

US earnings up

While 12-month inflation dropped to 3.0%, the lowest level since June 2023, headline inflation decreased by 0.1% in June after staying unchanged in May. After rising by 0.2% in May, core inflation grew by 0.1% in June. Core inflation rose by 3.3% in the last 12 months, the least since April 2021.

Because of the low rate of inflation in May and June, real (inflation-adjusted) incomes climbed by 0.9% and 0.7%, respectively. In June, real earnings for the full year climbed by 0.8% and 0.6%, respectively.

Even though there was a net gain of 206,000 new jobs in June, the unemployment rate increased by 0.1% to 4.1%. This represents the highest jobless rate since November 2021.

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Biden drops out of presidential election clearing the way for Kamala Harris

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